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Friday, June 21, 2024

Deaths Below Expected Levels in First Quarter of 2024

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The number of deaths registered in Scotland in the first quarter of this year was almost 9% lower than the expected number, according to figures published today by National Records of Scotland.  

16,755 deaths were recorded between 1 January and 31 March, 8.9% lower than the  expected number which was 18,391. 

Phillipa Haxton, Head of Vital Events Statistics at NRS, said:

“The number of deaths was almost 9% lower than our expected number for this time of year.

“The method for calculating excess deaths accounts for the large numbers of babies born post war reaching the age groups at which end of life is more likely.

“The previous method did not adjust for the increasing size of this group and underestimated how many deaths there would be in the population.”

In all age groups, deaths have been below expected levels for the last three quarters.

In quarter 1 of 2024, deaths among under 65s were 117 (4%) lower than expected, deaths in the 65-79 age group were 468 (8%) below expected and deaths for people aged 80 and over were 1,051 (11%) lower than expected levels.

11,560 births were registered in Scotland in the same timeframe.

This is 4.6% lower than the five year average. 

There were 3,205 marriages in quarter one of 2024, an increase of 8.3% on the recent average.

These figures are provisional.

The excess death figures are Official Statistics in Development.

Final figures covering the whole of 2023 will be issued with Vital Events Reference tables in July. 

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