NFU Scotland has warned that escalating tensions in the Middle East are already pushing up key farming costs and could threaten domestic food production if the situation continues.
The farming union has written to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer raising concerns about rising fertiliser and fuel prices linked to instability in global energy markets.
NFU Scotland says farmers and crofters across the country are beginning to feel the impact as input costs increase.
Agriculture is particularly exposed to fluctuations in global energy markets because fertiliser production relies heavily on natural gas and farm operations depend on diesel to power machinery and transport.
The union has warned that rising costs could force some farm businesses to reduce production if the trend continues.
NFU Scotland President Andrew Connon said the early signs of rising costs are already being felt across the sector.
“Farmers across Scotland are already seeing the early impact of global instability feed directly into the cost of producing food.
“Fertiliser and fuel are fundamental inputs for agriculture, and when those costs rise sharply it puts huge pressure on farm businesses.
“For many producers, input costs already represent the largest share of their operating expenses.
“If this volatility continues, some businesses may be forced to cut back production simply to survive financially.”
The union said any reduction in domestic production could increase reliance on imported food at a time when global supply chains are already facing pressure.
Agriculture remains a key part of Scotland’s rural economy and underpins a wider food and drink sector worth around £19 billion and supporting approximately 130,000 jobs.
NFU Scotland is calling for several short term measures aimed at stabilising production and protecting food supply.
These include temporary support for agricultural fuel costs, measures to maintain fertiliser availability and affordability, and a review of the proposed Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism in relation to fertiliser imports.
The union is also urging the UK Government to consider short term financial resilience support for farm businesses dealing with input cost volatility.
Additional proposals include expanding the powers of the Agricultural Supply Chain Adjudicator and improving monitoring and transparency within agricultural input markets.
Mr Connon said maintaining strong domestic food production is particularly important during periods of global uncertainty.
“Scottish farmers and crofters are committed to continuing their essential role producing high quality food for the nation.
“But without timely action, the compounding effect of rising input costs risk undermining production capacity precisely when global uncertainty makes domestic food security more important than ever.”
NFU Scotland has requested an urgent meeting with the UK Government, devolved administrations and industry stakeholders to discuss the situation and consider practical steps to support agricultural production.
