The SNP has warned that new UK Government immigration policies could cost the UK up to £10.8 billion over the next five years, after an official impact assessment revealed the scale of lost visa fees and tax revenue.
The assessment relates to Labour’s decision to tighten visa rules for skilled workers and care staff, alongside the closure of the Social Care Visa route earlier this year.
Figures show the number of Health and Care Worker visas has already fallen by 77 percent since March 2024, following the previous Conservative Government’s move to exclude dependents from applications.
Labour’s decision to fully close the social care route in July has intensified concern across Scotland’s care sector, which relies heavily on overseas recruitment to maintain staffing levels.
Scotland’s care providers have warned the changes risk undermining services at a time when demand is rising and workforce shortages remain acute.
The UK Government’s own analysis indicates the measures could result in up to £11 billion in lost revenue through reduced visa fees and lower tax contributions.
The proposals have been criticised by Scottish Care chief executive Donald Macaskill, who said he was deeply concerned the plans would deter much needed talent from staying in Scotland.
The SNP says the figures expose the economic damage of what it describes as hostile immigration policies driven by Westminster politics rather than workforce reality.
SNP MSP Emma Harper said:
“Keir Starmer’s insistence on dancing to Nigel Farage’s tune by introducing increasingly hostile immigration policies is already hammering Scotland’s care sector’s ability to recruit staff.
“Now we learn that Starmer’s own government’s assessment of the changes shows that they are set to cost the UK over £10 billion.
“Scotland’s care sector and economy has been hammered by decisions taken by successive Westminster governments whether it be Brexit, Labour’s tax on jobs or hugely damaging immigration policies to try to keep up with Nigel Farage.
“Labour must come out and explain where the billions are going to come from and how this will impact Scotland.
“Will this lost revenue result in further cuts.
“Better still, they should immediately admit they have got this disastrously wrong and perform another of their trademark U turns.
“What Scotland really needs is a fresh start with independence so that we can build a migration system based on our needs and values rather than one shaped by politicians hundreds of miles away in Westminster who only ever treat Scotland as an afterthought.”
The SNP argues that Scotland’s demographic needs, particularly in health and social care, require a tailored migration system rather than UK wide restrictions.
Ministers in Edinburgh have repeatedly called for greater flexibility over immigration to address labour shortages and support economic growth.
Labour has yet to respond directly to the £10.8 billion figure highlighted in its own assessment or to concerns raised by Scotland’s care sector.
The debate is expected to intensify as the UK Government brings forward further immigration legislation in the coming months.
