Artificial intelligence may be rapidly changing the world, but when it comes to deciding whether to take an umbrella or prepare for severe weather, the British public still puts considerably more faith in traditional forecasting.
New Met Office research involving more than 6,000 UK adults has found a substantial confidence gap between established physics based weather models and forecasts potentially produced using emerging AI techniques.
Around 80 per cent of those surveyed said they would be confident using traditional forecasts when making decisions about both everyday activities and important events.
When asked about potential AI forecasts, confidence fell to around 40 per cent.
There was a similar divide when people were asked how accurate they believed the different approaches would be.
Around 78 per cent considered physics based models accurate for daily and severe weather, compared with approximately 45 per cent for forecasts that could be generated using AI.
The findings matter because AI is expected to become increasingly important in weather forecasting, although the Met Office is not proposing simply handing the weather over to a computer and hoping for the best.
Its current forecasts are produced using physics based modelling, with researchers examining how those established methods could eventually be combined with AI to improve forecasting speed and accuracy.
Met Office Science Fellow and lead author Dr Edward Pope said:
“This paper deepens our understanding of current public perceptions as we approach a crucial juncture where AI-based weather models are demonstrating their potential to work alongside physics-based methods.
“This was a unique opportunity to compare public perceptions of established and emerging approaches to forecasting the weather.
“The gap in confidence and perceived accuracy highlighted in the paper demonstrates the need to clearly and transparently demonstrate the value of new approaches in ways that matter to people.
“AI techniques are likely to play a significant part in the next generation of weather forecasts, but these improvements will only be fully realised if the public continue to have confidence, and importantly act on, the weather forecast they see.”
That last point is particularly important when forecasts move beyond deciding whether the washing goes outside.
Weather warnings rely upon people trusting the information enough to change what they are doing, sometimes when their safety depends upon it.
Following the Red Extreme Heat warning issued in June, Met Office surveys found 96 per cent of people within the affected area were aware of the warning and 97 per cent of those people took action.
Maintaining that level of confidence while introducing new technology is therefore part of the challenge.
Met Office Chief AI Officer Professor Kirstine Dale said:
“We are exploring ways of blending physics-based and AI-based modelling to deliver the forecasts that we all rely on.
“As with all science developments, we will robustly evaluate and validate any changes to our approach to weather forecasting before we introduce them into the model.
“This stringent, and well established, evaluation process builds and maintains public trust and confidence when using the weather model to make decisions.
“Maintaining public confidence is critical and this study provides us with valuable insight into what’s needed to ensure that we fully realise the benefits of the integrated approach.”
Machine learning techniques have already been used within forecasting for years, but solely AI models are not currently responsible for the Met Office’s operational forecasts.
The likely future is instead a combination of established meteorological science and increasingly sophisticated AI models, provided those new techniques can demonstrate that they are reliable.
For the Met Office, developing the technology may ultimately prove only half the job.
The other half will be convincing the person looking out of the window that they can trust it.
