The SNP would win 40 Scottish seats at the next UK General Election if voting matched a new YouGov MRP model published today, a substantial increase on the party’s nine seats won in 2024.
The projection represents a significant potential recovery at Westminster for the SNP, although it remains a polling model rather than a prediction of what will happen at the next election.
YouGov’s MRP analysis puts Labour on 241 seats across Britain, making it the largest party but leaving it short of an overall majority.
The Conservatives are projected to win 130 seats, Reform UK 123, the Liberal Democrats 71, the SNP 40, Plaid Cymru 15 and the Greens nine.
MRP polling uses national survey data alongside demographic and geographical information to estimate results at individual constituency level, allowing researchers to produce a model of how seats could be distributed if an election were held under the conditions measured by the poll.
The SNP has seized on the Scottish projection as evidence that support for the party is strengthening following a month in which the country’s constitutional future has returned prominently to political debate.
SNP Depute Leader Keith Brown said:
“This poll tops off a massive month for Scotland with our constitutional future centre stage.
“It shows growing support for the SNP and a landslide in Scottish seats for our party.
“The British Prime Minister agreed it is for the Scotland people to decide our own future, the Cardiff Agreement crystalised that the age of Westminster is coming to an end and this week the Scottish Parliament with Scottish Labour support backed Scotland’s right to decide.
“Polling shows independence is the preferred choice of the Scottish people and this poll proves the momentum of this moment, the opportunity to build our future as an independent nation back home in the EU.
“The SNP is the party of independence and the simple concept of Scottish democracy is evidently ringing true with Scots.”
The Cardiff Agreement was signed earlier this month by the Scottish and Welsh Governments and established a framework for closer cooperation between the two administrations on shared priorities.
It includes a commitment to respecting the right of people in both nations to determine their constitutional futures through democratic means.
The latest Westminster projection follows a period in which constitutional questions have again featured heavily at Holyrood, with the Scottish Parliament this week backing the principle that Scotland is a nation with the right to decide its own future.
For the SNP, however, the most striking number in the latest YouGov research is 40, with the model suggesting the party could dramatically increase its representation at Westminster if current voting intentions were repeated at a General Election.
As with every MRP model, the figures provide a snapshot of opinion rather than an election result, and voting intentions can change considerably before voters are next asked to choose their MPs.
