New analysis has reignited debate over Scotland’s energy wealth after suggesting a Scottish oil fund could have been worth almost £1 trillion by 2030 had a similar approach to Norway been adopted in the 1990s.
The figures compare Scotland’s historic North Sea revenues with the investment model used by Norway, whose sovereign wealth fund has grown into the largest of its kind in the world.
According to the analysis, a Scottish oil fund following a similar path could have been worth around £671 billion in 2025 and potentially reached £923 billion by 2030.
Norway began making payments into its oil fund in 1996 and it is now estimated to be worth around $2 trillion.
The findings have prompted renewed political debate over how revenues from North Sea oil and gas have been managed over the past several decades.
Supporters of the comparison argue that Scotland’s energy resources could have provided a long term national investment fund similar to the one established by Norway.
Critics of such comparisons have previously argued that different economic circumstances, population sizes, tax structures and public spending commitments make direct comparisons difficult.
The latest figures were highlighted by SNP candidate Richard Thomson, who said Scotland had missed a major economic opportunity.
Richard Thomson said:
“While the Norwegians can rest easy knowing they’ve got a two-trillion-dollar fund, Scots have got nothing to show for our country’s immense natural wealth, thanks to Westminster.
“We’ve missed the opportunity of a century here, if Westminster had made the same choices as Norway, a Scottish oil fund could’ve been worth almost a trillion pounds by 2030 giving the Scottish people certainty in times of need.
“That’s enough money to pay the Scottish pensions bill every year for the next 80 years and we cannot afford to miss a second energy opportunity that lies before us this time round.
“We have a world class oil and gas industry that we can protect while growing a second world class renewables industry right by its side, by putting Scotland’s energy in Scotland’s hands we can ensure that energy wealth enriches Scots, not Westminster.
“Right now we should be sitting on a £1 trillion pot, but instead we are pleading with Westminster to end its tax on our energy that is ruining 1000 jobs a month, that’s exactly why we need a fresh start with independence.”
The debate comes at a time when Scotland’s energy future remains a major political issue, with ongoing discussions around North Sea oil and gas, renewable energy investment and the transition to net zero.
Questions over how energy revenues should be managed continue to feature prominently in political discussions, particularly as Scotland seeks to balance economic growth, energy security and environmental targets.
Whether the comparison with Norway is accepted or challenged, the analysis has once again focused attention on the long term value of Scotland’s natural resources and how that wealth might be used in the future.
