The Met Office predicts that 2025 is likely to rank among the top three warmest years ever recorded, following the extraordinary heat of 2023 and 2024.
Global temperatures in 2024 are expected to break records, exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time, surpassing 2023’s previous record of 1.45°C.
The primary driver of these rising temperatures is the relentless increase in greenhouse gas concentrations, compounded by warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures across much of the globe.
Natural climate variations, including the El Niño phenomenon, have also contributed to the sharp increases in 2023 and 2024, as warm tropical Pacific waters have elevated global atmospheric temperatures.
However, 2025’s warming trend is expected to persist despite a transition towards a La Niña phase, which typically brings slightly cooler global conditions.
Professor Adam Scaife, who leads the Met Office’s global forecast team, noted that 2025’s projected heat highlights the growing dominance of human-driven climate change over natural variability.
Scaife pointed out that even 2016, an El Niño year previously considered the warmest on record, now appears comparatively cooler against the backdrop of recent years.
The Met Office forecast predicts 2025’s global temperature to be between 1.29°C and 1.53°C above pre-industrial levels, with a central estimate of 1.41°C.
This would mark the twelfth consecutive year in which global temperatures have exceeded 1.0°C above pre-industrial averages.
Dr Nick Dunstone, who led the forecast’s production, warned that surpassing 1.5°C, even temporarily, is a significant milestone in climate history.
Although the Paris Agreement’s goal refers to long-term averages rather than individual years, the 1.5°C threshold serves as a stark reminder of the urgency of addressing climate change.
The Met Office uses a 20-year average to assess the current global warming level, which now sits at 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels.
With 2025 likely to mark the third consecutive year exceeding 1.3°C, the trend underscores the accelerating impact of greenhouse gas emissions on global temperatures.
The ongoing 2023/24 El Niño event has temporarily amplified global warming, but researchers are also investigating other contributing factors behind the recent temperature surges.
Professor Scaife emphasised that while natural events like El Niño add short-term peaks, the underlying rise in temperatures is driven by decades of unchecked greenhouse gas emissions.
As the planet approaches these critical thresholds, the warnings from climate scientists grow ever more urgent, calling for global action to limit future warming.
