First Minister John Swinney will declare that the political landscape is shifting in favour of Scottish independence as he delivers his closing address to the SNP’s annual conference in Aberdeen today.
Speaking on Saturday 17 October, the SNP leader is expected to tell delegates that 2026 has become a turning point in Scotland’s constitutional future, with growing support for national self determination across the United Kingdom.
His speech comes against the backdrop of renewed disagreement with Westminster over a second independence referendum, following Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s visit to Scotland on Friday.
Burnham offered greater economic powers to Scotland’s communities and called for a move away from constitutional arguments towards closer cooperation between governments.
Swinney, however, is expected to argue that the political momentum is moving in the opposite direction, with independence remaining central to his government’s ambitions.
The First Minister will point to the SNP’s election victory earlier this year and the presence of First Ministers in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland who support their nations’ right to determine their constitutional futures.
He will also seek to portray Westminster’s continued opposition to another referendum as increasingly difficult to sustain.
Addressing delegates, Swinney is expected to say:
“Conference, because we won the election and because we won the trust of people in Scotland we can now do two things.
“Improve people’s lives here and now.
“And build the best possible future by delivering Scottish independence.
“Make no mistake, if we had lost the election this year, if we were out of power then the independence cause would have been set back decades.
“That’s why our opponents threw absolutely everything at us.
“But we refused to be blown off course.
“And as we stay true to our values, our beliefs and our founding mission.
“Now, our opponents are becoming ever more desperate. Ever more personal. At times, ever more ludicrous.
“That is because they can see what everyone else can see.
“Friends, we are winning. One by one, the stars are aligning in our favour.
“In Holyrood the Westminster parties are weaker than they have ever been.
“In Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast, every First Minister now supports our nations’ right to self-determination.
“In Westminster, Unionists united in their panic.”
Swinney will also deliver a confident assessment of the independence movement’s position following the Scottish Parliament election.
He is expected to add:
“2026 has been a turning point in Scotland’s journey towards statehood.
“And there is no turning back.
“The SNP is making the weather.
“And make no mistake, the wind is now firmly in the sails of Scotland’s independence movement.”
The speech comes as the SNP faces questions about how it intends to secure another independence referendum while the UK Government maintains its opposition to holding one.
Although the party remains committed to independence, the Scottish Parliament cannot independently legislate for a referendum under the constitutional arrangements confirmed by the UK Supreme Court in 2022.
Swinney’s remarks will therefore be seen as an attempt to strengthen political pressure on Westminster while maintaining confidence among independence supporters following another election victory.
For now, the immediate disagreement remains between a Scottish Government seeking a route to another referendum and a UK Government advocating further devolution within the existing constitutional settlement.
The First Minister’s message to delegates will be that, despite those obstacles, he believes the political circumstances are changing in the independence movement’s favour.
