Highlands and Islands MSP Ariane Burgess has called on the Scottish Government to step up preparations for the worst effects of the climate crisis, warning that Scotland must be ready for the potential collapse of the Gulf Stream.
In a letter sent ahead of Climate Action Secretary Gillian Martin’s attendance at the COP30 conference in Brazil, Ms Burgess highlighted the increasing scientific consensus that the Gulf Stream, the ocean current that helps regulate Scotland’s mild climate could weaken or even collapse within this century.
Such a change, she warned, could have dramatic consequences for Scotland’s weather, food systems, and infrastructure.
“While it sounds like the plot of a sci-fi film, we really do need to face up to the increasing risk that the Gulf Stream could collapse in the near future,” Ms Burgess said.
“Any prolonged change in this current will lead to drastic shifts to our climate and our way of life.
“Everything from the homes we live in to the food we grow will be impacted.”
Ms Burgess said that while a collapse may still be decades away, the adaptations required would take just as long to implement, making early action essential.
“It is crucial that this Government gets the ball rolling and begins to plan for how Scotland will meet this existential challenge,” she added.
“If we can get started now, while we still have enough time, I have every confidence in our nation’s ability to weather big changes to our climate.”
Her intervention follows a recent exchange in Holyrood in which she asked what preparations were being made for such a scenario.
In response, the Cabinet Secretary for Climate Action cited the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 3, which concluded that a Gulf Stream collapse was “very unlikely this century.”
However, Ms Burgess says that conclusion is now out of date.
“The assessment the Government is relying on is based on research that concluded in 2021,” she said.
“In the four years since, the risk level has increased substantially.
“Given that the UN now acknowledges the 1.5C target from the Paris Agreement has been missed, we need more regular reviews of the science to ensure decision making keeps pace with developments.”
She urged the Scottish Government to work more closely with UK and international partners to ensure Scotland is fully prepared for the realities of an accelerating climate emergency.
