More Scots support holding another independence referendum within the next five years than oppose one, according to new polling that has renewed debate over Scotland’s constitutional future.
The Norstat survey, commissioned by The Sunday Times and conducted between 20 and 23 October, found that 47% of respondents favoured another vote by 2031, compared with 42% who were opposed.
The findings suggest that public opinion remains divided, although supporters of another referendum hold a five percentage point advantage among those surveyed.
On the question of independence itself, 52% of respondents expressing a voting preference said they would vote Yes, while 48% favoured remaining within the United Kingdom.
The figures exclude undecided voters and represent a narrow lead for independence rather than an outright majority of everyone surveyed.
The latest results follow an Ipsos survey published in June which found that 48% of Scots supported holding another referendum within five years.
That earlier poll also found that 19% preferred a referendum further into the future, while 22% believed there should never be another vote.
Together, the findings indicate continuing interest in revisiting the constitutional question, although they do not establish an overwhelming public consensus on when another referendum should take place.
The SNP has welcomed the latest survey and called on the UK Labour Government to recognise what it describes as growing support for another vote.
SNP Depute Leader Keith Brown said:
“After electing the largest number of pro-independence MSPs in history, this poll underlines how there is support for an independence referendum
“It should be a wake-up call to the Westminster parties that they are standing against the will of the Scottish people.
“And once again we see independence is the preferred choice of the Scottish people, the sixth poll since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister.
“Westminster isn’t working for Scotland and the largest number of pro-independence MSPs in our parliament reflects that sentiment is felt deeply across Scotland.
“Through a fresh start with independence Scotland, we can use our vast energy resources to build a wealthier, fairer, Scotland as part of the EU.
“That’s the future we can build together by taking the opportunity to vote for it.”
The polling comes during a period of renewed discussion about Scotland’s economic future, particularly following the UK Government’s approval of the Jackdaw gas field and arguments about how North Sea revenues should be invested.
The SNP continues to present independence as an opportunity for Scotland to control its resources, taxation and economic priorities, while opponents question the financial and constitutional consequences of leaving the UK.
Other recent polling has produced different results on independence, including a YouGov survey conducted between 29 September and 5 October which placed support for remaining in the UK at 53% among decided voters.
That difference demonstrates how results can vary between polling organisations and why individual surveys should be considered alongside wider trends.
The latest Norstat findings nevertheless add to the evidence that Scotland remains closely divided over its constitutional future.
For the SNP, the result strengthens its argument for another referendum, while the decision over whether and when such a vote could take place remains a matter of political disagreement.
