Scotland’s economy could be producing around £5,100 more per person if GDP per head had grown at the EU average since 2014, according to figures obtained from the Scottish Parliament Information Centre.
The SNP says the comparison strengthens its case for independence and eventual EU membership, although the £5,100 figure represents a comparison with an alternative growth path rather than money that would literally have appeared in every Scot’s pocket.
The figures compare Scotland’s economic performance with average growth across the European Union over the period since the independence referendum in 2014.
They have emerged as the economic consequences of Brexit return to the centre of Scotland’s constitutional debate.
Research published by economists at Stanford University last year estimated that Brexit had reduced UK GDP by between 6% and 8% by 2025, alongside reductions in investment, employment and productivity.
Scotland voted by 62% to 38% to remain in the European Union in the 2016 referendum but left alongside the rest of the UK when Brexit took effect.
The SNP argues that the economic comparison demonstrates the opportunity Scotland has lost and supports its case for becoming an independent country before seeking membership of the EU.
SNP Depute Leader Keith Brown said:
“Momentum is firmly behind Scotland’s right to decide and these new stats underline why.
“Our future is as an independent country back home in the EU and the simple fact is if we weren’t ripped out against our will, every Scot would be £5,100 richer.
“We are a wealthy, energy rich, nation and our people must be afforded the basic democratic right to choose a future that is not tied to broken, Brexit Britain.”
Brown’s description of every Scot being £5,100 richer goes further than the economic comparison itself.
GDP per head measures economic output divided by population and is widely used to compare economic performance, but an additional £5,100 of GDP per person would not mean every individual receiving another £5,100 in disposable income.
Nor does comparing Scotland with average EU growth establish that remaining in the EU would necessarily have produced precisely the same economic performance, because many factors influence economic growth.
The figures nevertheless arrive alongside growing evidence that Brexit has imposed significant economic costs across the UK.
They also feed into a renewed constitutional argument at Holyrood, where the SNP continues to press for another independence referendum and argues that Scotland’s economic future would be stronger inside the European Union.
Separate research cited by the party has suggested that an independent Scotland returning to the EU could produce further economic gains, although such estimates depend heavily on assumptions about future trade, investment and Scotland’s eventual relationship with both the EU and the rest of the UK.
The constitutional arguments surrounding independence will continue to divide opinion.
But almost a decade after Scotland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the European Union, the economic consequences of Brexit are increasingly something that can be measured rather than merely predicted.
