New research has revealed that the devastating fires during the UK’s record-breaking 2022 heatwave were made at least six times more likely due to human-caused climate change.
That scorching summer saw the UK hit 40°C for the first time, stretching emergency services to their limits, with London Fire Brigade experiencing its busiest day since the Second World War.
The study, conducted by the Met Office, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, and University of Exeter, highlights how rising temperatures and drier conditions are dramatically increasing the risk of extreme fire weather in the UK.
England emerged as the most vulnerable nation, with the research published in the journal Environmental Research Letters painting a stark picture of future fire risks.
Scientists compared today’s climate with a world without human-driven greenhouse gas emissions to measure how much climate change has influenced fire weather conditions.
They analysed how weather changes affected the spread and intensity of fires once they had ignited, revealing a clear link between climate change and increased fire danger.
Lead author Dr Chantelle Burton from the Met Office stated:
“The 2022 heatwave wasn’t just record-breaking—it drastically increased fire risk, highlighting the growing danger climate change poses to the UK.”
Dr Burton added that the likelihood of such severe fires has increased at least sixfold due to human activity, with hotter and drier summers becoming the norm.
Co-author Dr Douglas Kelley from the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology warned:
“Our findings underscore a stark reality: climate change is amplifying fire risks right now, even here in the UK.”
He stressed that wildfires will increasingly threaten people, infrastructure, and ecosystems as temperatures continue to rise.
One of the key messages from the study is the urgent need to adapt to rising fire risks while simultaneously cutting emissions to limit further warming.
A significant and immediate reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions could curb future fire risks, while adaptation measures could help protect communities and the environment from escalating threats.
Possible actions to reduce fire risks include improved land management, stricter building regulations in high-risk areas, better fire detection systems, and public awareness campaigns to reduce accidental fires.
Dr Burton emphasised that the experiences of 2022 serve as a stark warning of the need to adapt and act swiftly to mitigate climate change.
Researchers used advanced climate models and a ‘fire weather index’—which tracks hot, dry, and windy conditions linked to fires—to assess the extreme fire weather conditions of 2022.
By analysing historical data and future scenarios, the study provides vital insights into how fire risk is increasing due to climate change and what must be done to address it.
The message is clear: without urgent action, fire risks will only grow, making extreme fire events an increasingly common and dangerous reality in the UK.
